With their ships and aircraft taking heavy losses, Chinese leaders eventually opt to attack the two U. Then on the last turn, China makes a decisive move. Throughout the game, the airfields on Okinawa—an island that is a part of the Japanese homeland—were packed with American and Japanese aircraft. Beijing could no longer resist the temptation: Salvoes of missiles devastate the runways, severely damaging Blue airpower.
By end of the game, the situation seemed stalemated: China had sustained heavy losses, but still retained control of Uotsori Jima. For one, there are too many subjective or arbitrary factors in these simulations to simply declare that Nation X using Strategy Y would win in real life.
For example, in the interests of simplicity and playability the CNAS wargame omitted factors such as logistics, information operations to shape public opinion, and political tensions within the Chinese leadership and the U.
And, of course, there is the fact that real-life leaders would be acutely aware of the possibility of nuclear involvement. Instead, the value of these simulations is more about process and insight: How did events flow, why did players make the decisions they did, and what weaknesses and capabilities were revealed? For U. Further, a key aspect of modern combat is that what can be seen be destroyed, and what remains undetected can survive.
Both sides started wanting to localize the conflict to a few barren rocks in the ocean. But after a few turns, China felt compelled to lob missiles at Okinawa. This raises troubling questions for whoever occupies the White House next year.
The Trump administration has pledged U. And once hostilities between the United States and China begin, they may be difficult to stop. Michael Peck is a defense writer. He is a contributor to Forbes Defense, editor of Uncommon Defense , and senior analyst for Wikistrat. Twitter: Mipeck1. The clash between Washington and Beijing could be the start of a new ideological confrontation—or the inevitable fallout from a power transition.
Aegis Ashore was more expensive than bargained for, but scrapping the program may come with its own costs. Shusha was the key to the recent war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Now Baku wants to turn the fabled fortress town into a resort. That calamity, the gathered journalists needed no reminding, started with an unexpected event: an assassination in Sarajevo.
And what would he expect the U. He did, however, defend his visit to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine. Abe said he was not the first Japanese leader to visit the shrine, and that his predecessors as Prime Minister had collectively visited it 65 times.
Critics of his visit simply misunderstood his intentions, he said. China would have the most to lose from war, Abe suggested, pointing out that conflict would slow the economic growth that the government in Beijing needs to preserve its legitimacy.
The last few years have added new pressure, as the U. American policies directed against unfair trade, technology theft, national security risks, and complicated by geopolitical rivalries and diplomatic conflicts, have tightened the noose. The net-net: Like Japan in , China now finds itself in a position of acute strategic vulnerability, intolerable in light of its geopolitical ambitions.
The parallels between the Japanese situation in and the Chinese situation today are striking. There are many reasons China might wish to move on Taiwan, and finally, after 70 years, to be done with it.
But until now, clearly none of those reasons have been sufficiently compelling to risk the possibility of open conflict with the U. The semiconductor crisis outlined here could change that. Beijing might come to see how a takeover of Taiwan would solve this worsening strategic vulnerability all at once.
Are we complacent? Media descriptions of the political and economic tension between the U. We are used to it. Scare headlines sell newspapers. It is easy to assume that we are all too grown-up to let mere trade disputes get out of hand. Maybe so. I myself make these assumptions. It helps me to sleep more easily.
However, there is History to consider, in the form of the Angell thesis. This is a BETA experience. You may opt-out by clicking here. More From Forbes. Nov 13, , pm EST.
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